Market and Technology Forecasting
in the Communications Industries
ElectroniCast specializes in forecasting technology and global market trends in electronics, fiber
optics, light emitting diodes (LEDs), advanced photonics, integrated circuits, microwave/wireless,
and network communications . As an independent consultancy we offer multi-client and custom
market research studies to the world's leading companies based on comprehensive, in-depth
analysis of quantitative and qualitative factors.
-LAN/Premise Data Networks
-Advanced Photonic Products
-LEDs and/or Illumination
-Rest of World
Jeff D. Montgomery, BSEE, MBA; Chairman and founder of ElectroniCast.
Mr. Montgomery has over 55 years of professional experience in the electronics industry. Through
the most recent 45 years, he has worked full time in electronic industry forecasting and planning
with 37 years' experience in communication fiber optics. His work experience, prior to founding
ElectroniCast Consultants, includes: ElectroniCast Corporation, 25 years, founder and CEO; Gnostic
Concepts, Inc., 9 years, co-founder and President; Quantum Science Corp., 2 years; Varian
Associates, 8 years; Andrew California Corp., 10 years. He is a Senior Life Member of IEEE and
Member, SPIE and OSA.
Stephen Montgomery, MBA/Technology Management, President – International Business Expansion
at ElectroniCast Consultants.
Mr. Montgomery has specialized in photonics and fiber optic components market & technology
forecasting since 1990. In addition to serving as President for International Business Expansion at
ElectroniCast Consultants, Mr. Montgomery is the Director of the Fiber Optics Components group
and the LED Market Research group. He also is the Director of several conferences. He has given
numerous presentations and published a number of articles on optical communication markets,
technology, applications and installations. He is a member of the Editorial Advisory Board of
LIGHTWAVE magazine and writes a monthly article covering the Telecommunications industry for
SEE STEPHEN's Blogs:
Theresa Hosking, BS; Vice President of Sales and Marketing
Ms. Hosking is responsible for the company's global marketing and sales efforts in the Advanced
Photonics, Mature Fiber Optics, Networking Systems, LED and Illumination, Laser and the
Microwave Communication Groups. She also is the conference and trade show coordinator and
has hosted the FTTX Resource Center at major conferences. Terry's previous experience in the
market research communications industry include: ElectroniCast Corporation, 10 years, Vice
President Sales & Marketing, Gnostic Concepts, market analyst assistant, 2 years.
Hans van der Tang, MBA; Director Sales & Marketing – APAC Region.
Mr. van der Tang, a Dutch national living in Japan for more than twenty years, has extensive
experience in a broad variety of management and consulting roles. Fluent in Dutch, English and
German and with business-level language skills in Japanese enables him to work in almost any
business or cultural environment. His work experience, prior to joining ElectroniCast Consultants –
Asia Pacific Region (APAC), includes GfK Marketing Research/Asia Data Research Inc, Forefront
Technologies, the American Management Association and Japan Advisory. At GfK, he managed the
sales and marketing operation of marketing research services to the headquarters of almost all
Japanese and Korean companies in the consumer electronics industry such as Canon, Sony,
Matsushita, Toshiba, Samsung, Sharp, Hitachi, JVC, as well as companies in other industries.
About ElectroniCast Consultants
ElectroniCast forecasts trends in communication networks and in the products and components
used in those networks. ElectroniCast conducts studies and provides forecasts in the worldwide
fiber optic/photonic, optoelectronic, network product, LED, and microwave communication
industries. This includes technology forecasting, markets and applications forecasting, strategic
planning, competitive analysis, and marketing/sales consultation. ElectroniCast Consultants,
founded as a technology-based independent forecasting firm, meets the information needs of
communication industry planners and related suppliers. These studies are either multiclient or
The ElectroniCast purpose is to understand your problems, and to provide timely, high-quality
analysis and forecasts to help solve those problems. We focus on your interests. That's why over
80 percent of our business is with clients we have served before.
ElectroniCast conducts studies, and provides forecasts, in the worldwide fiber optic/photonic and
optoelectronics industries. These studies are either multiclient or custom.
Multiclient studies and services are available to any subscriber. They are structured broadly, to be
useful to a wide range of clients.
Custom studies are tailored to the interests of a single client, and are proprietary to that client. The
custom study typically is narrowly defined. It may focus on strategic business planning, markets,
technology, competition, acquisition strategy, or any other information requirement.
ElectroniCast covers Fiber Optics/Photonics, Optoelectronics, Communication-Related Services,
and Interconnection at all levels including:
How To Get Started
Phone or write ElectroniCast if you need a forecast or planning assistance. A general or custom
study will be proposed without obligation.
ElectroniCast concentrates on areas where future technology advancement will have a major
impact on new product and service market opportunities:
the ElectroniCast field research is aimed at analyzing worldwide laboratory activity and forecasting
the resulting technology trends. These technology forecasts are then applied to extensive end-user,
bottom-up market analysis. Input/output methodology is used as a cross-check of these user-based
ElectroniCast segments component and systems use into the following major application
We Help You Catch The Window
The product life cycles of high technology electronic products are short, and will continue to shrink.
For success, it is vital to target the right products for development and to introduce them to the
market at the right time. Decisions on major R&D and facility investments must be made before
competitors’ products seize the market—and these decisions must be made quickly.
ElectroniCast's fast-turn-around analysis and forecasts help you catch the windows of opportunity.
In analyzing and forecasting a product or service market, ElectroniCast combines several
Product consumption and production history is determined by:
• Interviews of the leading product or service users and producers ("dual track" primary
• Secondary research (a review of published information, including industry data, technical
papers, financial reports)
This research provides a consensus of the past history of the product or service: value, price
trends, application trends, leading producers and their market shares.
The forecast, working from this historical data, is based on interviews of:
• Users (mainly design engineers who decide which product to specify)
• Suppliers (manufacturers, distributors, transporters)
• Researchers (industrial, government, university)
• Government agencies
The short range (1-2 years) forecast is based mainly on a consensus of supplier and user
viewpoints. If adequate historical data are available, projections also may contribute to the short-
range forecast. These methods, however, are not suitable for long-range forecasts, especially for
The long-range forecast is based upon the following sequence:
• The advancement of technology of the product, competing products and the end applications is
forecasted based on interviews of researchers and other experts in the product field.
• The economic significance of the advanced technology products is analyzed from the following
• Real value to user, determined by user interviews
• Displacement of competing products
• Creation of new markets
• The production of the end-use equipments or systems is forecasted.
• Production costs, and thus minimum pricing, of the product at various quantity levels are
• The demand forecast is derived by bottom-up, application-by-application analysis.
The analysis of cost-effectiveness and understanding of the user perception of risk of the product
provide insight into the rate of penetration of the product into the various end applications at its
minimum profitable price. Input/output analysis applies the penetration forecasts to the end-
application production forecasts to provide a cross-check of the product consumption forecast.
This consumption forecast is then adjusted by forecasted imports and exports, inventory change,
R&D use, and other non-production markets to derive the total production forecast. Finally, by user
interviews, the production forecasts are segmented into captive (in-house) production versus
available (merchant) market. The forecast data are computer-processed and the forecasts are
available on CD Rom or via e-mail delivery.
Why ElectroniCast Consultants Leads
A base of over a quarter century of forecasting technology application and market trends of leading-
edge photonic and electronic products. No other consultancy compares to ElectroniCast
Consultants in the number of current, in-depth fiber optic component forecast reports.
Photonic Integrated Circuit Transceivers (PICs)
Optical Fiber Amplifiers (OFAs)
Optoelectronic Integrated Circuits (OEICs)
Massively Parallel Optical Interconnect (Masspar)
Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL) Transceivers
Optical Crossconnect (OXC) Matrix Switches
Optical Add/Drop Multiplexers (OADMs)
Optical Backplanes (OBPs) and Motherboards
Internal Optical Interconnect
The forecasted product is divided into its subsets (and sub-subsets). The significant applications
are identified. For each product subset, in each application, the base year consumed quantity and
its average per-unit price is estimated, based on in-depth interviews of both customers and
suppliers. This is repeated for each succeeding year of the forecasts. Quantity is multiplied to
obtain the value forecasts, at these lowest levels. The quantity and value forecasts are then
summed to obtain the total forecast. All of this bottom-up quantity, price and value data is provided
in spreadsheets with each report.
EXTRAORDINARY DATA BASES
The bottom-up forecast numbers are managed within extremely detailed spreadsheets which
support accurate forecasting of over 20 fiber optic component categories plus end applications
(equipment) and subsidiary piece parts. These forecast spreadsheets, in printout format, on CD, are
provided to each client.
The consumption quantities of various components are related to each other, as well as to the
quantities of consuming equipment and the quantities of supporting parts. This permits cross-
referencing of forecasts, to improve accuracy.
Clients have access to forecast report authors and support staff for extended exploration and
clarification. ElectroniCast maintains a continuing consulting relationship with its clients, providing
additional information as needed.
ElectroniCast is owned by its founder and staff, free from influence by outside ownership.
Excellence in forecasting and client service are the guiding principles.
ElectroniCast organizes and sponsors several fiber optic component industry conferences,
facilitating interaction among client and ElectroniCast staff with industry leaders in all areas
-LAN/Premise Data Networks
-Advanced Photonic Products
- LEDs and Illumination
-North, Central and South America (America)
-Europe, plus Middle Eastern and African countries (EMEA)
-Asia Pacific (APAC)
|We Help You Catch the